The invention relates generally to prediction systems and more particularly to a system and method for predicting component failures in large systems.
A large system may be considered generally to be made up of a plurality of co-operating units or components that interact with one another to enable the effective functioning of the system. Examples of large systems may include, for example, locomotives, aircraft engines, automobiles, turbines, computers, appliances, spectroscopy systems, imaging devices, nuclear accelerators, biological cooling facilities, and power transmission systems. Such large and complex systems are generally monitored by a plurality of sensors to determine one or more performance characteristics of the system. These performance characteristics could comprise, for example, estimates or measurements of physical conditions, operational efficiency, projected remaining operational lifetime, security, or time to failure of the system or a component thereof.
Sensors provide data measurements that represent certain parameters related to the operation of the system, which may be used to measure the degradation of the components of the system over time. Additionally, a prediction system may be a part of such a large system, to further process the data measurements collected by the sensors to determine certain performance characteristics of the system such as, for example, the time to failure of the components in the system.
However, in general, large systems, such as those mentioned above, may be a part of a fleet of systems and each such system in such a fleet may be present at a different physical location or site. In addition, each system belonging to such a fleet of systems may be of different ages, may have non-uniform degradation rates and furthermore, each of the components comprising these systems may themselves have non-uniform degradation rates.
A predictive system that has the capability to identify and predict non-uniform component degradation rates in systems that are a part of a fleet of systems is therefore desired.